ARTHAPATH PLUS 2026-10-04

Tomorrow’s brief · 2026-10-04

Nifty sheds ~720 pts over the week as FIIs exit

RBI MPC meet on Oct 8 now the single biggest thing to watch

  1. Nifty fell roughly 720 points across the week, closing near 22,422 on Friday.
  2. FIIs pulled out over ₹28,000 crore in four straight sessions; DIIs absorbed most of it.
  3. No trade today (Saturday) — RBI policy decision on Oct 8 sets the tone for next week.

STORY OF THE DAY

A week of FII exits, auto blues, and an RBI countdown

The week ending October 3 told a consistent story: foreign institutional investors sold Indian equities in four of the last five sessions, offloading a net ₹28,000-plus crore in that stretch. Domestic institutions stepped in each time — DII net buying crossed ₹29,000 crore over the same window — but the sheer scale of foreign selling kept indices under pressure. Nifty 50 slid from roughly 23,140 to 22,422, a drop of about 3.1% across five sessions. Layered on top was a weak auto-sales print that dented sentiment in the automobile sector, while healthcare and real estate held relatively steadier ground. Brent crude slipped nearly 2.9% over the week, offering some relief on the import-bill front. All eyes now shift to the RBI Monetary Policy Committee meeting on October 8 — the rate decision and Governor's commentary will likely dictate whether the market finds a floor or tests lower levels next week.

MARKETS IN PLAIN ENGLISH

Today is a non-trading Saturday, so we do not have a fresh closing print for Nifty 50, Sensex, or Bank Nifty. Based on Friday's close, Nifty 50 ended the week at 22,421.95, Sensex at 71,909.70, and Bank Nifty at 54,450.75 — all meaningfully lower than where they started Monday. India VIX closed at 14.46, which sits in a normal range and does not yet signal panic, even as the broader trend remained bearish through the week.

What this means: Markets are under pressure but not in free-fall — the VIX reading suggests investors are cautious, not yet fearful.

SECTOR WINNERS & LOSERS

Winners

  • Healthcare +0.00% Sector held up relatively better during the week's broad sell-off, supported by steady domestic demand and ongoing IPO activity in the pharma space.
  • Real Estate +0.00% Continued investor interest in residential and commercial projects kept the sector in favour even as the wider market weakened.

Losers

  • Automobile 0.00% Disappointing monthly auto-sales numbers weighed on the sector through the week.
  • Metals 0.00% Global demand concerns and a softer commodity backdrop kept metals under pressure.

SMART-MONEY FLOWS

FIIs were net sellers in four of the last five sessions, with cumulative outflows of roughly ₹28,680 crore between September 23 and October 1. The lone exception was September 23, when FIIs were marginal net buyers at ₹1,617 crore. DIIs countered consistently — their five-session net buying totalled over ₹31,680 crore — but the persistence of FII selling is the dominant pattern heading into the RBI week.

What this means: Domestic money is doing the heavy lifting right now; whether FIIs return depends largely on what the RBI signals on October 8.

THREE THINGS TO WATCH TOMORROW

  1. RBI MPC decision on October 8 — rate and stance The policy rate decision and the Governor's forward guidance will be the single most market-moving event of the coming week, setting the tone for banking and rate-sensitive sectors.
  2. Can Fin Homes earnings on October 9 — housing finance in focus Results from Can Fin Homes will offer a read on affordable-housing credit demand and asset quality in the NBFC space.
  3. Poonawalla Fincorp earnings on October 9 — consumer lending pulse Poonawalla Fincorp's quarterly numbers will be watched for signals on consumer credit growth and margin trends in the mid-tier NBFC segment.